Los Angeles, CA – A new report from the California Policy Lab at UCLA shows promising early results from LA County’s Homelessness Prevention Unit (HPU). The report found that people in the HPU program were 71% less likely to enter a homeless shelter or have contact with street outreach teams within 18 months, compared to similar high-risk people who didn’t enroll. 

The HPU uses a first-of-its-kind predictive model, developed by the California Policy Lab, to identify LA County residents most at risk of homelessness and to connect them with intensive, tailored support, including financial assistance. Launched in 2021, the HPU program is a partnership between the California Policy Lab, the LA County Department of Health Services, and the LA County Chief Information Office. 

“This model helps us reach people before they experience a crisis,” said Dana Vanderford, Associate Director of Homelessness Prevention for the LA County Department of Health Services. “It’s a smart, effective, and compassionate way to prevent homelessness.” 

The CPL report evaluated outcomes from a pilot phase (May 2022–Feb 2023), before the launch of the formal, randomized trial evaluation. This early analysis compares 335 who enrolled in HPU to 1,285 others who were eligible for the program but did not enroll. During this period, enrollment in the program was associated with improved outcomes related to housing stability, homelessness, and other adverse events such as interactions with county services. 

The HPU program has served 1,498 people to date, and 86% of participants have retained their housing upon completion of the program.  

Proactively reaching out to high-risk individuals and effectively getting people enrolled has proven one of the most challenging aspects of the program. During the formal evaluation period, the HPU enrollment rate jumped 67%—from 21% to 35%—after several operational improvements were implemented, including a dedicated outreach team and a standardized case review and discharge process. 

“This is what smart homelessness prevention can look like, using predictive modeling and supportive services to act early, not after someone ends up homeless, said co-author Janey Rountree, Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UCLA. “We’re encouraged by HPU’s early results and what they suggest is possible.” 

Unlike many programs, HPU doesn’t wait for people to seek help. It proactively reaches out to those at highest risk, often people who aren’t connected to existing services. Case managers carry small caseloads and offer personalized support, including health care, job services, and help with essentials like laptops or appliances. In addition, the participants receive an average financial assistance of $6,469 across all households. Budgets vary based on household size. 

“The early signs from HPU suggest we’re on the right track. This is a powerful model for what targeted, data-informed support can achieve in preventing homelessness,” said Max Stevens, Chief Analytics Officer at the Los Angeles County Chief Information Office. 

Randomized control trial results are anticipated in 2027. The report is available at the following link: Early Outcomes from the Los Angeles County Homelessness Prevention Unit – California Policy Lab. Staff and experts are available for interviews on the predictive model, the HPU program, participant success stories, and additional findings from the report. 

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The California Policy Lab at UCLA generates research insights for government impact. Through hands-on partnerships with government agencies, CPL performs rigorous research across issue silos and builds the data infrastructure necessary to improve programs and policies that millions of Californians rely on every day.

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